April 27, 2018

Tying up the Oil Price Watch

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This is just a tail piece on the Oil Price Watch run we have done over the past few weeks and which we shall put to bed for the moment.  As they say, our work here has been done – for now. So what remains that might be useful to review at this point?

Well, first we put down the basics in the  “Oil Price Watch Overview

This set the context for various Oil Price Watches on a week by week basis

While each Oil Price Watch was of interest in itself, the real value was in tracking how the Oil Price Watch Overview could help us analyse what had happened – and why – to the  price of this commodity over the previous few days. Many of the lessons generalise to other commodities , just as we saw in “Copper bottomed forecasting

What did help to tie things up was “Economics, the cheerful
science

… and its bringing in of long term influences to complement what was mostly short term influences in the week by week Price  Watches.

The bottom line, almost literally, is that economics can help make sense of the world and better prepare us for dealing with the events that happen in the markets we encounter.  Ironically, as Julian Simon helped show in “Economics, the cheerful science”, economics can be better at looking into the long term future rather than what is going to happen tomorrow – though we may be able to can look back at the recent past and explain what happened using the basic tools of supply and demand.

And as for the near to medium term – it just remains to wish you all happy holidays.